Another Day Another Gap Up - Core PCE Before The Open
ES BQ PRE-MARKET TRADE PLAN 06/27/2025
ES 6208.25 and NQ 22740 achieved in the overnight session. These were our targets this past Saturday and as discussed it would take all week to get there with VIX in the $16s and volume about -40% below average. I mean we can all see what is happening here. Barring any news we will be reaching all time highs for the 4th of July which coincidentally is when Trump is supposed to be signing the “Big Beautiful Bill.”
Daddy’s home.
If we just pretend that there is some resistance overhead on the NQ it might be 22812 before we reach the ATH which also could be resistance but why would it?
Now the ES has quite a bit more to go. $70 to ATHs, while really not all that much, with VIX now looking to go into the $15 range and volume 40% below average… that would be one helluva grind higher today. But with ATHs in sight, maybe that brings out the patriot buyers looking to get in before they are forced to buy the tippy top.
Again though, let’s pretend there will be some resistance overhead. Maybe we can get a pullback off of 6252.50 or 6264.25? The structure up here looks like a box of cow tongues to be honest.
One thing is for certain… both the ES and NQ are up here and have little if anything to lean on should bad news enter the conversation. So at any time if VIX wants to ramp back above $21 and volume wants to show up with it, we could dump.
But what could happen does us no good. The low volume no volatility melt up is upon us. First quest: Will we hold the gap or gap and go? If we dip I want to look for support to come in on NQ at the following:
22722 and 22671.
Otherwise I would look to trade back through previous day value and possibly cash session open before we bounce and balance for an inside day.
For the ES I would like to see dips into the following bought:
6207 and 6197.50 GBA Open.
Any deeper pullback would mean the NQ is dumping for some unknown reason.
Risk On Risk Off?
Risk On.
VIX is going into the $15s unless PCE has something to say about it. Volume is horrible. So low volume melt up or we pullback on lack of participation at the highs. I always lean to the Friday high close and then probably need it to get the ES there by the 4th of July.
Bish
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