Everything Is Awesome... But Structure Still Matters!
ES NQ PRE-MARKET TRADE PLAN 07/01/2025
Yesterday I gave the upper target of ES 6264.25 which was in my sell zone 6263.25 - 6267.50. All you have to do is put this on a VbP chart and you will see why it is an important area and level. I also warned everyone about the end of the month flows which almost always includes an end of the session ramp. Well mission accomplished.
Now what?
Both the ES and NQ have settled back down in their previous day range and value areas. Both basically on top of previous day POC. We have some news this morning which could create some volatility. Powell is speaking as well but who knows if he will even mention what is going on between him and Trump or the economy.
VIX is back above $17 and volume is 22% below average and dropping as I type this.
So what am I looking for today? Pretty simple. To start I am watching for a balanced open to the ES and NQ markets. Now the news can change this but till it does I have to trade what I see. Volume is off and VIX is at $17. We have a holiday coming up after a massive quarter. The hourly bands are inside previous day’s range on both the ES and NQ. So unless something changes I am looking to fade previous day’s extremes till they are broken with single prints.
Right now with volume -23% and dropping I cannot see a move lower sustainable. If we do drop volume needs to come in and in a big way for me to get short. Otherwise I am looking to fade the move. If the market melts up I know the ES has solid resistance overhead as evidenced by yesterday’s high into my level and sell zone. Again, we are going to have to attract Buyers well out of position on horrible volume basically at ATHs. I will look to fade this as well till I have single prints. Even with single prints the grind higher might be too much for me unless I am in early and have a runner on.
If you look at the ES and NQ below it looks like a good place to balance off after a massive move higher. The market needs balance!
I am a buyer on the NQ on pullbacks into 22762.
I am buyer on the ES on pullbacks into 6230.75 and previous day’s low
Only until these are broken can I think about committing to shorts.
Risk On Risk Off?
Right now it looks risk off but on the new month some profit taking might make sense. Does it mean we will see a sellers market? Not likely imo but watch volume. If we dip and volume picks up, we could see some sell enter the equation.
We are still in a dip buyers market till the market says otherwise.
Bish
Disclaimer: Educational and Entertainment Purposes Only
The information presented in this article is strictly for educational and entertainment purposes. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All content is provided "as is" without any representations or warranties.
Readers are advised that:
Trading involves significant financial risk
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Any strategies discussed are hypothetical and may not be suitable for all investors
You should consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions
The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.