Struggle All Day Ramp Overnight
ES NQ PRE-MARKET TRADE PLAN 06/26/2025
We have seen this play out many times before. The market struggles to do anything all cash session then when GLOBEX opens and the book is thin, they ramp the markets. Now the new trader might believe that all they have to do is trade the overnight session as well as the cash session and they will bank. If only it were that easy. Many of us trade the cash session. So being available overnight is tough. Especially when you have a family, dinner, errands, etc… to take care of. If you are not careful you will destroy yourself trying to trade 23 hours a day. So for cash session traders it really puts a premium on understanding what the market could do and being available at the exact moment it is going to do it. Yesterday pre-market we knew volume was horrible. So the risk to Buyers was lack of participation. This turned into a slow melt off a couple hours into the market. We saw the Buyers lose the cash session open. You would have been short the rest of the day.
Overnight traders, when the book is thin, the NQ Buerys gave you this look on a pullback to the GBX open and you would have been long all night.
For ES, on the Market Profile, the same pullback to GBX open was the perfect entry for the overnight move.
Hindsight trading is easy. But how many of us are still mentally in the game at 10:30PM CST after putting in a full day? Not me.
So that leaves us with today’s cash session. Very similar setup to yesterday’s cash open. ES and NQ pressing the overnight highs on 43% below average volume. VIX at $16.65. Mega Caps are good with AAPL being the laggard. CL finding a home at $65, which I still find comical but will take it.
So we are left with chasing the market on the open or waiting for pullbacks. We go with the gaps that do not fill quickly (at least that is the rule). My questions are: Will the lack of participation in the cash session lead to a melt off or will we be able to find buyers on a pullback to keep pushing the highs? Will VIX $16 make the market unbearable for cash session trading? Do I size up and just look for a couple pts to bank some profits and go do something else? Do I start sleeping during the day and look to trade overnight?
Anyway, I am no doubt in buy the dip mode. There are simply no sellers in these markets. So at what levels will I look to buy?
First, the quickest trade out of the gate for both ES and NQ, I want to look for a strong bid above the cash session open. This might be the only trade I need if Buyers show up right off the opening bell.
Second, if Buyers cannot hold the cash session open, I know we will get a dip that ultimately I may want to buy. However, like yesterday, acceptance under the cash session open might dip and keep dipping searching for Buyers that might not show up till GBX. So I have to be open to a short. Even if it is short lived. Put on some size, strip some off and just let the runner go till I see Buyers on the tape.
Third, I am wanting to see if Buyers step at some obvious levels:
ES EUR Open 6160.75 / Previous Cash Open 6155 / GBX Open 6144.75
NQ EUR Open 22533 / Previous Cash Open 22488 / GBX Open 22461
The above are easy market generated levels. Available to all. No searching necessary. If course there are the current gaps but they might not even be there by cash open. If they are then I want to watch the structure develop on the cash open to see if there is a volume ledge I can go long off of which could hold the gaps.
Risk On Risk Off?
We are Risk On but this does not mean just buy at any cost. The participation is weak. When the market opens up this can change but VIX at $16. Volume -44%. Mega Caps already having a solid move. It is just not going to be an easy day for the impatient.
Good luck today. Make some money and go enjoy your life. Get some rest. We might all be up tonight for the real move!
Bish
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