The Only Two Things That Drop A Market - Fear & Uncertainty
ES NQ PRE-MARKET TRADE PLAN 07/14/2025
I was on a hike yesterday from after Church through about 6PM and from what I could tell before the GBX open all sorts of tariff news was hitting the wires and we opened with a gap down. However, overnight we have recovered and both the ES and NQ are back, for the time being, in previous day ranges. ES held our LVN and 6260.75 with 4 ticks MAE and the NQ dropped into its month POC. So for now there is really nothing to see here. This is a event risk heavy week beginning tomorrow AM with CPI and both the ES and NQ are range bound which is not likely to change today in my humble opinion… which let’s face it, means absolutely nothing when the cash session opens.
Remember there are only two things that brings on the Sellers: Fear and / or uncertainty. Right now the markets are fairly certain the tariff tussle is here to stay till they strike deals and the more they sabre rattle with tariff talk the more everyone seems to quickly walk it back saying they want to work out an amazing deal. So until tariffs are actually whatever the number ends up being, I doubt it is going to cause much concern for the markets. Again just my opinion as we could dump 1000 pts today and I would not be shocked.
So if there is no tariff uncertainty where is the fear? Well I am not seeing anything to be fearful of at this time. Maybe tomorrow CPI comes in white hot and everyone starts to fear that the tariff fearmongers like Jerome Powell were right all along. But that is tomorrow. Not today.
So for me I am looking to play the above ranges and levels till the range is broken. Maybe it happens today and maybe the market balances here and waits for the CPI news tomorrow. I am betting the latter.
So for me I am going to wait it out and play it slow today. Not going to be in a hurry on a Monday ahead of CPI. The Risk On Risk Off screen as of now is pretty risk off as far as equites go but the markets are holding up for now and volume is tanking. VIX is still in the $17 range so not expecting any volatility till that starts seeing above $20. Mega caps are flat.
With the current structure on the NQ I favor a rotation higher but ultimately not expecting much on a summer day ahead of CPI on crap volume.
For the ES? Well the current structure is uglier than a Chelsea Clinton Meatloaf love baby. I think that is going to be a hard trade and crap volume.
We shall see.
THE PIT LEGENDS - Statement to be released today.
Bish
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