Trading What You See, Not What You Think
In the complex world of futures day trading, one principle stands above all others: trade what you see, not what you think. This simple yet profound concept forms the foundation of consistent trading success, yet it remains one of the most challenging disciplines for traders to master.
The Trap of Prediction
Many traders approach the markets with a predictive mindset. They develop complex theories about where prices should go based on economic indicators, news events, or technical patterns. They think, "The market must go up because of this Fed announcement" or "This support level has to hold because it's been tested three times."
This predictive approach seems logical. After all, isn't the goal of trading to anticipate future price movements? However, this thinking contains a fundamental flaw: the market doesn't care what you think should happen.
The market is an amalgamation of millions of decisions made by participants with varying time horizons, risk tolerances, and information sets. No single trader, regardless of experience or intelligence, can consistently predict its movements with certainty.